Dismal Outlook for the Economy the Fed says

Fed Sees U.S. Economic Growth Slowing, Mulls Policy Options | Fox Buiness

Response to David Repka on LinkedIn Group; Location Location Basis

David you want my opinion well here goes…

The short answer is there needs to be a change at the Top meaning this President has to go.

Also the Democratic leadership has to go

You cannot have a growth economy using socialism as the framework.

It has failed every time. But of course the Ideologues haven’t a clue.

What also has to happen are term limits for all office holders.

No more career politicians.

We need to elect business minded people who understand business, not lawyers or community activists.

The Government and the Bureaucrats don’t know one thing about business and the ramification of rules and regulations they pass and implement. It all sounds good on paper and in sound bites.

The meltdown that started this whole thing in 2007-2008 actually started in the 1990’s under Clinton.

We need to stop trying to create this idealistic utopian society which is impossible to establish.

So in the 1990’s Congress passes the Community Investment Act…which is actually a gun to heads of the banks that said either you start offering “affordable” home loans to people in challenged neighborhoods or forget trying to expand your banking footprint. OK says the banks…and with the help of Fannie and Freddie the system goes to work. The lenders are happy b/c they are able to sell Federal Guaranteed loans. Then they see what the GSE’s are actually doing which is securitizing those loans and selling pieces (Traunches or parts of the bonds) to the public. OK great the banks say, you know we can do that too. And better yet we don’t even need the Government to guarantee anything b/c we will do this via Wall St. And best of all we can sell these loans and have no further skin in that game ( The lender no longer owned the loan so if it went into default they would not be out any money or worry about foreclosure) all the while we can make fees to “service” those loans.

The government is OK with this although there are regs & rules which if one looked deep enough probably could have if not stopped this, at least slowed it down. But NO, we had the Dot.Com bust and the Fed in their only way of fixing things relaxed monetary policy. Pushing housing is a guaranteed way of fueling the economy, look at how many jobs and industries are involved with new home construction and existing home sales.

Bush sees this growing problem in 2005-2006, but when he tries to do something ( Which was too late BTW) the Utopians say no way, we want everyone to be able to buy a home.

Then you have 9-11 01 on the heels of the Dot.Com stock market crash…The Fed continues and even loosens monetary policy even more…and for too long. So let’s thank Greenspan which in my opinion is how this all became so much of a bubble. Add to the fact the rating agencies were complicit in this as well b/c they had no idea what they were doing, admitting such, way after the fact. That is where the regulators should have stepped in. No need for more laws and regulations just stricter enforcement of existing rules, which even if there were none, just having hearings on these topics would throw cold water on this scheme. The Volker Rule or what was known as Glass-Steagall Act is what was needed and should never had been repealed. That is what would be called Tweaking not creating a massive new Bureaucracy.

Of course the Utopians always think that more laws and regulations are the answers with far reaching and sweeping changes to boot, since they (Politicians) want to be perceived as REALLY doing something. All that was needed was a little tweaking. The same can be said of the Health Insurance situation. That only needed tweaking not a massive overall of 2400 pages of bull regulations that even those that pushed for it didn’t bother to read.

Why, because the Utopians honestly believe in a single payer system meaning the Government. Which will be the end result after the Private Insurers are out of business which is one of this law’s intentions. But what most Utopians don’t want the public to really know, is the Federal Government which is already one of  the largest health care insurers, has a 5%-8% claims rejection rate which is much higher than the top 5 private health insurers in the United States, but I digress.

To them the Government is the answer to everything and the cure for all problems.

The problem is the Government is only good at one thing and it is the Defense Department. They can’t even run the Post Office nor have the savvy to properly vet a Solar Energy Company.

So to answer your question again, what the government needs to do is step aside.

They have added an additional 42 more regulations which small businesses need to deal with.

They have added close to $6 trillion to the national debt. I have even heard a prominent Dem talking head say he doesn’t believe in worrying about the deficit…Not to worry about $16 trillion in debt, the interest alone will be suffocating. Again Not a clue as to what economics are all about. What is interesting is that Utopians can find ways to spend Trillions of Dollars in spending but just try to cut even $100 Billion (50 times less) of spending and they go nuts, everything is a sacred cow. They can’t even agree to cut the rate of spending which is really what this is about.

The Government meaning the Socialists/Utopians has to keep the tax rates where they are for everyone. But no, they believe in creating class warfare rather than what makes sense. This President was told that when you lower the capital gains tax you actually raise more tax revenue than the other way around. What was his response…Yeah but its not fair.

Again the Ideologues believe taxing the rich will be a cure to the deficit problems (Not really that is what they use as an excuse). They know it’s all political. Even if you TOOK all the so called 1%’ers assets and money from them folks, that may cover interest on our National Debt for about a month maybe. But of course the near 50% of Americans who pay ZERO, NADA, NONE, NOTHING in income taxes are OK with that.

In 1887 Alexander Tyler, a Scottish history professor at the University of Edinburgh , had this to say about the fall of the Athenian Republic some 2,000 years prior:

“A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent  form of government.  A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover that they can  vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury.  From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates who promise the  most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse over loose fiscal policy, (which is) always followed by a dictatorship.”
“The average age of the world’s greatest civilizations from the beginning of history, has  been about 200 years.

Credit which is the life blood of a capitalistic society needs to become free flowing again, but the banks were and continue to be so whipped they would not dare try to do loans for fear of the “Government Regulators”. As early as 2006 The Feds began scrutinizing the banking system’s exposure to real estate lending…that was the beginning of the end, as me and maybe two other people predicted.

I saw this crash coming in 2005…I wrote about it, I lectured about it, I said it was not sustainable the way real estate, especially commercial was being financed.

I approached several of the Rating Agencies to offer my company’s training programs, as it was evident they were putting ratings on CMBS bonds w/out properly vetting the underlining real estate which is the “C” in CMBS.  They would rate multi-billion dollar CMBS bond issues in less than 30 days. You can’t even get an appraisal done in that time frame.

Now we have over the top regulations in Dodd-Frank which is a joke since the two of the Bill’s namesakes were involved in the why the crash happened in the first place never mind getting sweetheart loans from one the most notorious lenders.  We have over the top regulations regarding Health Insurance (It’s not about health care, although that will come as a result of this Obamacare) and how it will crush small businesses.

It will also keep the housing market from making any sort of sustainable and upward improvement since within the Obamacare law is a 3.8% capital gains surtax which means everyone who has owned a house for a while will be hit with this tax upon selling. And you know who gets slammed the most are the aging Baby Boomers. This goes for stocks and bonds too. But one had to read the bill first. This surtax is another way the moronic politicians found to pay for this economy killing piece of legislation. Even the NAR is in the process of trying to reverse this so called unintended negative consequence.

The Government under this Administration is being run by Ideologues and Utopian thinking Bureaucrats.

They do not like Business or Business People. They have no idea how this Country became so successful.

Small Business has accounted for 70%-80% of all job creation over the last 15 years. If that does not change and I see no hope that it will under this current climate, there will be no economic recovery.

As I have said many times in the not too distant past, the two things that will make a major change is getting the housing market healthy again but that can’t happen until the Job sector starts to dramatically improve. It’s a “Catch-22”. One drives the other. But as one of our LinkedIn participants has said, and he is correct, we are now in a paradigm shift of huge proportions. The entire Demographics of the USA are changing and will continue to do so. One recent article predicts that 8% unemployment is here to stay for the foreseeable future as well as 1.5%-2% GDP growth which is downright miserable and leaves us with a diminished and flat lined economy.

The Baby Boomer Generation has been financially gutted, and this generation was the cause for much of the economic expansion since the 1970’s. Even without the 2007 crash, the economy would have started changing due to the Baby Boomers beginning to retire and grow old.

This is NO news, back as early as Jimmy Carter’s administration and more recently under Clinton there were Presidential commissions regarding Social Security and its future. Guess what, this was all known 18 years ago. But the professional politicians decided they can ignore the problem, well the problem is now at our collective door step. Much like Medicare is due to dry up in the next 20+ years unless something is done now.

So to summarize….

1.          Government needs to Step aside-Repeal Obamacare

2.          Government needs to Step aside-Repeal Dodd-Frank

3.          Government needs to Step aside- Let the Banks lend again but with more intelligence

4.          Government needs to Step aside- Address the issues affecting small business

5.          Government needs to Step aside- DO NOT RAISE TAXES

6.          Government needs to Step aside-CUT SPENDING

7.          Government needs to Step aside-Cut Overbearing Regulations especially towards oil & gas exploration and drilling. We need to be energy independent so we can tell all the OPEC countries where to stick it. More Importantly to have pricing stability for our fuel which affects every aspect of economy and for Geo-Political reasons.

8.          Government Needs to Step aside-Cut overbearing environmental regulations, or at least be more sensible about the time lines. What difference does it make if we have cleaner air if China does NOT do a darn thing about their air pollution, and the same applies to India, Russia and the other emerging economies? With all the pollution controls which have been implemented since the 1970’s especially regarding auto emissions, you would think our air pollution would be going way down. Hmmm.

I could go on about the political polarization which is not helping improve the economy, meaning the over the top PC that is going on, the over the top hatred that gets displayed when a majority of the sane and rational don’t agree with the Utopians. There is no room for compromise by the Utopians.

I know there will be those who will say I am being an ultra conservative…not really, but the extreme left and that includes the current WH administration considers even those in the Center to be right wing extremists.  We need less radical Utopian thinking at the Government level and more practical ideas and common Sense… that is what what is needed.

I hope I answer your question David